fcslbd

আইএমএফের লক্ষ্যমাত্রা পূরণে বারবার ব্যর্থ হওয়ার পাশাপাশি গত দুই বছর ধরে ডলারের মজুদ ক্রমাগত কমতে থাকা সত্ত্বেও আগামী কয়েক মাস বাংলাদেশের রিজার্ভ স্থিতিশীল থাকবে বলে মার্কিন রেটিং এজেন্সি মুডিস পূর্বাভাস দিয়েছে।

প্রতিষ্ঠানটির ভাষ্য, গত জানুয়ারিতে সাধারণ নির্বাচন হওয়ার পর ব্যবসায় অনিশ্চয়তা ধীরে ধীরে কমতে থাকার পাশাপাশি আমদানি বিধিনিষেধ চলমান থাকায় চলতি অ্যাকাউন্ট ব্যালেন্স ইতিবাচক হয়েছে।

প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়েছে, আন্তর্জাতিক আর্থিক প্রতিষ্ঠানগুলো ঋণ দেওয়া চলমান রাখায় রিজার্ভে এই ইতিবাচক দিক দেখা যাচ্ছে।

আন্তর্জাতিক মুদ্রা তহবিলের (আইএমএফ) চার দশমিক সাত বিলিয়ন ডলার ঋণ কর্মসূচি চলমান রাখতে এই ইতিবাচক ধারা জরুরি।

২০২২ সালের জুনের আগে বাংলাদেশের রিজার্ভ ছিল ৪০ বিলিয়ন ডলারের বেশি। এরপর থেকে রেমিট্যান্স ও রপ্তানি আয় কমতে থাকে। এ ছাড়াও, আন্তর্জাতিক বাজারে পণ্যের দাম বেশি হওয়ায় আমদানি খরচ বেড়ে যায়। ফলে রিজার্ভ কমে যায়।

বাংলাদেশ ব্যাংকের তথ্য অনুসারে, গত ২১ মে রিজার্ভ ছিল ১৮ দশমিক ৬১ বিলিয়ন ডলার।

মুডিস বাংলাদেশের রেটিং নিয়ে পর্যায়ক্রমিক পর্যালোচনার পর প্রতিবেদনটি প্রকাশ করেছে। এতে বলা হয়, স্থিতিশীল দৃষ্টিভঙ্গিসহ প্রতিষ্ঠানটি বাংলাদেশের জন্য ‘বি ওয়ান’ রেটিং অপরিবর্তিত রেখেছে।

এতে আরও বলা হয়, ‘এই স্থিতিশীল অবস্থার জন্য বাংলাদেশ আন্তর্জাতিক আর্থিক প্রতিষ্ঠানগুলোর কাছ থেকে ঋণ সহায়তা পাচ্ছে।’

মুডিস আশা করে যে, মহামারির আগের অবস্থার বিবেচনায় বাংলাদেশের আর্থিক পরিস্থিতি দুর্বল হলেও আন্তর্জাতিক আর্থিক প্রতিষ্ঠানগুলোর ঋণ সহায়তা রিজার্ভের ওপর চাপ কমাতে কার্যকর ভূমিকা রাখবে।

এতে বলা হয়, পোশাক রপ্তানিতে বিশ্বব্যাপী দ্বিতীয় অবস্থানে থাকা বাংলাদেশের আর্থিক স্থিতিশীলতার পেছনে এই খাতের অবদান আছে।

দেশটির কম মাথাপিছু আয়, অবকাঠামো, মানবসম্পদ ও প্রতিযোগিতামূলক অর্থনীতির সীমাবদ্ধতা ও পোশাক খাতের ওপর ব্যাপক নির্ভরতা সত্ত্বেও এই স্থিতিশীলতা ভারসাম্যপূর্ণ।

মুডিস আরও বলছে, জোরালো প্রবৃদ্ধির সম্ভাবনা বাংলাদেশের ঋণকে ভারসাম্যে রেখেছে। রাজস্বের তুলনায় বাড়তি ঋণ ও প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক দুর্বলতা দেশটির আর্থিক স্বস্তি কমিয়ে দিয়েছে।

প্রতিবেদনে আরও বলা হয়েছে, প্রতিযোগিতামূলক পোশাক শিল্প দীর্ঘমেয়াদে বাংলাদেশের জিডিপি, রপ্তানি ও আয়ে অবদান রাখবে। তবে পোশাকের বৈশ্বিক চাহিদা কমে যাওয়া ও আর্থিক হিসাবের ঘাটতি বাংলাদেশের অবস্থানকে দুর্বল করার পাশাপাশি রেটিংয়ের ওপর চাপ বাড়িয়েছে।

কম পরিমাণে রাজস্ব আদায়, সক্ষমতার তুলনায় সুদ মেটাতে বেশি খরচ ও তুলনামূলকভাবে ক্রমবর্ধমান সরকারি ঋণের কারণে বাংলাদেশের ঋণ পাওয়ার যোগ্যতা কমে যাচ্ছে।

মুডিস বলেছে, ‘এই পরিস্থিতি দুই থেকে তিন বছর আগের তুলনায় নাজুক থাকবে।’

এতে বলা হয়েছে, মূল্যস্ফীতির চাপ বেশি থাকবে, ক্রয় ক্ষমতা কমবে ও অর্থনৈতিক প্রবৃদ্ধি তুলনামূলকভাবে সীমিত হবে।

এপ্রিলে ভোক্তা মূল্য সূচক বেড়েছে নয় দশমিক ৭৪ শতাংশ, যা গত এক দশকেরও বেশি সময়ের মধ্যে সর্বোচ্চ। গত অর্থবছরে এই সূচক ছিল নয় দশমিক শূন্য দুই শতাংশ।

source: আগামী কয়েক মাস বাংলাদেশের রিজার্ভ স্থিতিশীল থাকবে: মুডিস | The Daily Star Bangla

moody bangladesh reserve bd stable IMF

Additionally, the duty-free vehicle import benefit for members of parliament may be withdrawn with a proposed 25% customs duty. The tax is currently as high as 800% for general importers.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has directed the National Board of Revenue (NBR) not to increase taxes on food, agro-related items, and fertilisers in the upcoming budget, given the country’s high food inflation while the NBR plans to reduce corporate tax for non-listed companies by 2.5% to 25%, with conditions requiring transactions through banking channels.

Besides, in the Tk8 lakh crore budget for FY25 approved by the prime minister today (14 May), there may be bad news awaiting the country’s millions of mobile phone and internet users as the NBR is considering making talk time and internet use costlier by increasing supplementary duty which is already among the highest in the world.

Additionally, the duty-free vehicle import benefit for members of parliament may be withdrawn with a proposed 25% customs duty. The tax is currently as high as 800% for general importers.

According to NBR sources, fiscal policy officials from the NBR met with the prime minister today (14 May) to inform her about the proposed policy changes.

Moreover, capital gains amounting to over Tk40 lakh from the stock market will be taxed in the upcoming budget. It is presently exempted.

Currently, listed companies in the stock market are enjoying a 20% corporate tax rate, while non-listed companies have to pay 27.5%. However, both must maintain formal transactions after reaching a certain level which many companies cannot comply with.

“We now turn to incentive-driven tax policies. Companies will get the benefit of paying tax at a lower rate if they conduct transactions above a certain level through formal channels,” a senior NBR official told The Business Standard on condition of anonymity.

“We have already discussed this proposal with the prime minister,” he said.

Sources present at the meeting with the prime minister told TBS, “The prime minister directed the NBR not to hike any duty or tax on food and food-related items as food inflation is already high.”

According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), in April, Bangladesh’s food inflation was over 10%.

Some food items, food grains, agricultural inputs, including fertiliser, and some basic industrial raw materials currently enjoy zero-duty benefits.

Tax hike on mobile talk time

An NBR official told TBS on condition of anonymity that they are considering increasing the supplementary duty on mobile phone talk time and internet usage by five percentage points in the upcoming budget.

“We hope this proposal will be placed in the parliament,” he said.

Currently, with value-added tax (VAT), supplementary duty, and surcharge, the total tax on mobile phone users is more than 33%. That means if anyone recharges Tk100 for talk time, the person currently receives less than Tk67 worth of usage.

If NBR’s new plan comes into effect, people’s mobile phone costs will increase by another Tk5, and their usable amount will shrink to less than Tk62. In the case of internet usage, costs will also increase by Tk5.

Stakeholders say that if charges for mobile and internet use increase further, it would create additional pressure on consumers, especially on low-income earners.

SM Nazer Hossain, vice president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said, “These are not luxury items. People use mobile phones and the internet out of necessity. Costs should not be increased again for this.”

“The services are currently taxed at very high rates. People have been facing high inflation for a long time. So there should not be further taxation on these services,” he added.

Dr Ahsan H. Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), told TBS, “It would be a wrong move if the government further increases tax on talk time and internet usage, as the country’s telecom sector already has one of the highest tax rates in the world.”

“It would decrease people’s data usage leading to a decrease in overall productivity, which would undermine the government’s digital and smart Bangladesh plan. The cost of internet usage needs to be decreased,” he said.

Sahed Alam, chief corporate and regulatory officer of Robi Axiata Limited, one of the largest mobile operators in the country, said the increased tax burden will further accelerate the negative trend in this sector.

“Already burdened with high taxes, another increase in the supplementary duty on various services in the mobile telecommunication sector will have an adverse impact on customers as well as on the overall consumption of mobile-internet services, especially when the number of mobile internet users has been declining for the past few quarters,” he said.

“We believe that overall, the objective of increasing the tax rate will not be successful as it will reduce the total amount of mobile consumer spending,” he added.

‘Mobile phone sector is the golden goose for NBR’

Economist Dr Ahsan Mansur termed the mobile phone sector as the “golden goose” for the country’s revenue authority.

Before 2015, there was a straight 15% VAT on mobile talk time. In FY25, the NBR increased the supplementary duty by 3%. Over the next five years, the revenue authority further increased the supplementary duty by 12% step by step, along with a 1% development surcharge.

On the other hand, the country’s mobile phone companies have to pay as high as 45% corporate tax.

An official of the NBR said, “If NBR’s new plan comes into effect, it will create an opportunity to collect another around Tk1,000 crore.”

Dr Mansur said the decision would undermine the sector’s growth and investment in Bangladesh.

According to NBR sources, the country’s mobile phone sector’s VAT and supplementary duty payments rank second highest following tobacco. The lion’s share of VAT and supplementary duty comes from consumers. In FY23, NBR collected Tk9,438 crore from the mobile phone sector.

According to the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Authority (BTRC), as of July 2023, the country’s mobile phone subscribers numbered over 19 crore, with an average growth of 7 million over the last eight years.

On the other hand, the number of internet users is over 13 crore, with a growth rate of 1 crore in the last eight years.

Tax on talk time one of the highest in Bangladesh

According to industry insiders, Bangladesh’s consumers and mobile operators have to pay some of the highest taxes in the world.

Currently, Bangladesh’s total effective tax on consumers for talk time is 33.25%, comprising 15% VAT, 15% supplementary duty, and 1% surcharge.

Neighbouring India taxes at 18%, Malaysia 6%, Thailand 7%, Nigeria 7.5%, Singapore 9%, and Indonesia 11%. Only Pakistan’s rate is slightly higher than Bangladesh’s, at 34.5%.

‘Companies fail to get tax cut benefit’

Stakeholders say the challenges faced by companies in availing the benefits of reduced corporate tax rates highlight the complexities of transitioning to a formal economy and the need for a gradual approach to policy implementation.

“While the government’s initiative to reduce corporate tax rates is a positive step towards promoting business growth and competitiveness, issues such as disallowances and stringent conditions can undermine the intended benefits for a significant number of companies,” Naser Ezaz Bijoy, former president of Foreign Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), told TBS.

Mahmudul Hasan Khusru, former president of Institute of Chartered Accountant of Bangladesh (ICAB), said, “Limitations such as the yearly cash transaction threshold of Tk36 lakh for companies may not be feasible for businesses operating in predominantly informal sectors of the economy. Many companies may find it challenging to meet these requirements, thereby missing out on the tax cut incentives.”

NBR has not chalked out any projection on how much they have to exempt due to the corporate tax cut. A senior NBR official said, “Our main target is to formalise the economy.”

source: https://www.tbsnews.net/nbr/pm-no-tax-hike-food-fight-inflation-nbr-plans-more-corporate-tax-cut-851336

prime minister tax hike no food

Globally steel raw material prices are stable now, but Bangladesh will have to spend higher for its import because of the US dollar rate hike since the introduction of the crawling peg system, analysts said today.

“Despite the stable international rates, the import cost of scrap steel will increase in Bangladesh as US dollar prices have increased substantially in the country,” said Abhijeet Mahanta, marketing and sales director for South Asia at Atlas Commodities in India.

He spoke at a session of the fourth Bangladesh International Trade Summit 2024 at Pan Pacific Sonargaon in Dhaka. Bigmint, a platform for price reporting, market intelligence and consulting for commodities of India, organised the summit.

Bangladesh’s steel sector annually needs six million tonnes of scrap steel, where imports meet 90 percent of the demand and the rest come from the local market, the industry insiders said.

Import of finished steel is prohibited in Bangladesh so the local millers need to collect scrap steel from local and foreign sources, said Sanjoy Kumar Ghosh, head of supply chain management at BSRM Bangladesh.

The steel sector has great potential in Bangladesh, as the country needs huge infrastructure development which will require a continuous flow of steel, he said.

Steel demand is low at present in Bangladesh due to the ongoing economic vulnerability, but, Ghosh believes, the situation will improve in the next one year.

The steel millers suffered supply chain disruptions in the last few years because of the Russia-Ukraine war, he said.

“The use of scrap steel is increasing in the USA and India, for which we are now looking for new sources in Australia, Malaysia and West Africa to meet our demand for steel raw materials.”

The growing demand has also created a supply shortage of scrap steel, said Salehin Musfique Sadaf, director of GPH Ispat Bangladesh.

India annually imports 70 million tonnes of scraps to meet its national demand of around 90 million tonnes, said Ranjit Kumar, head of sponge iron trading at Tata International of India.

The global prices of scrap steel may increase in the days to come, but Bangladesh would not face any scarcity of such raw materials thanks to its geographical location, he said.

Zain Nathani, managing director of Nathani Group of Companies in India, moderated the session of the two-day summit, which will end tomorrow.

About 450 delegates, including industry leaders, policymakers, traders, and investors, from 35 countries, including Bangladesh, Germany, Australia, Turkey, India, Austria, Russia, Taiwan, China, Japan and America, took part in the summit.

Mill owners along with mill machine manufacturers, industrial consultants, materials suppliers and industrial group engineers also participated in this conference.

source: www.thedailystar.net/business/news/steel-prices-set-rise-bangladesh-analysts-3609901

steel price rise bangladesh bd